Bleacher Report's Expert Week 1 NFL Picks (2024)

A new NFL season and new money. What more can we ask for?

The upcoming campaign will open up a world of opportunities for bettors, and our experts are here to help you stuff your pockets for the next six months.

Last year, everyone in the crew finished above .500, and Gagnon led the panel with a 153–114-5 record. As a group, our consensus picks went 147-120-5

Now, with the addition of Michelino, the B/R betting crew is bigger and better than ever.

Let's start the season with a bang. Our Week 1 picks are in, and we're ready to roll for 2024.

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Sept. 4, at 3 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

To kick off the 2024 season, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of the 2023 AFC Championship Game, but these teams will look different from the last meeting.

The Ravens have three new starting offensive linemen, and they added star running back Derrick Henry. With new defensive coordinator Zach Orr replacing Mike Macdonald, Baltimore's defense may not operate in the same way as last year's No. 1 scoring unit.

The Chiefs lost cornerback L'Jarius Sneed and linebacker Willie Gay, though they drafted Xavier Worthy to spice up their passing attack and Kingsley Suamataia to replace left tackle Donovan Smith. Wideout Hollywood Brown will miss this game against his former team with a shoulder injury.

Our panel split on this decision, though Hanford believes the Ravens will ground-and-pound their way to victory with Henry.

"I like Lamar Jackson to get his second career win over Patrick Mahomes in the 2024 season opener. While Kansas City has owned Baltimore (and the entire month of September, to a degree), Jackson should be motivated after dropping the AFC Championship Game to the eventual Super Bowl champs last season.

"Another year in Todd Monken's offense and the addition of Derrick Henry proves just enough to best Steve Spagnuolo's defense in a back-and-forth game to start the year."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Gagnon: Ravens

Hanford: Ravens

Knox: Chiefs

Michelino: Chiefs

Moton: Chiefs

O'Donnell: Ravens

Sobleski: Ravens

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Chiefs 21

For the first time in history, there will be an NFL game in Sao Paolo, Brazil. Spectators at Corinthians Arena will see two potential NFC playoff contenders who trended in opposite directions at the end of the previous season.

As the Philadelphia Eagles backed their way into the playoffs with a 1-5 record between December and January, the Green Bay Packers won three straight to earn a wild-card spot. Both teams went on the road in the postseason. Philadelphia lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a blowout, and Green Bay throttled the Dallas Cowboys.

Knox is concerned about the Eagles resting their starters for the exhibition games. Yet he can see their offense going up and down the field against the Packers defense because of a shallow secondary.

"My biggest concern with the Eagles is that none of their starters appeared in the preseason. The risk of sloppy Week 1 play is real—Philly only beat the lowly Patriots by five points in last year's opener—and the fact that this game is being played in Brazil only adds to the uncertainty.

"That said, I have serious questions about Green Bay's secondary depth behind Jaire Alexander and newcomer Xavier McKinney. I think the Packers will again be playoff contenders in 2024, but I also believe the Eagles have too many offensive playmakers for Green Bay to keep pace in Week 1."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Eagles

Hanford: Eagles

Knox: Eagles

Michelino: Eagles

Moton: Packers

O'Donnell: Packers

Sobleski: Packers

ATS Consensus: Eagles -3

Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Packers 23

The Cincinnati Bengals have a major story going on away from the field. According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, the Bengals have intensified negotiations with star wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase.

Chase has missed several practices as he pushes for a new deal. Even with questions about his availability, the panel leaned heavily toward Cincinnati.

Moton probably has the Patriots in a top-three spot for the 2025 draft. He's not concerned about Chase and believes the Bengals can win big on Sunday with or without him.

"Whether Ja'Marr Chase plays or not, the Patriots will stink this year," Moton said. "Sure, New England has fielded a stout defense during former head coach Bill Belichick's years, but most of his proteges haven't done well without him.

"As the team's former linebackers coach, Jerod Mayo may be able to slow down the Bengals offense, especially without Chase. Still, he cannot fix that offense with Jacoby Brissett behind a weak offensive line.

"The Bengals will score a couple of offensive touchdowns, log a defensive score and kick a pair of field goals in a blowout victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Bengals

Gagnon: Bengals

Hanford: Bengals

Knox: Patriots

Michelino: Patriots

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Bengals

Sobleski: Bengals

ATS Consensus: Bengals -8.5

Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Patriots 12

The Arizona Cardinals will travel across the country to face the Buffalo Bills in a contest that draws intrigue with new beginnings for the offenses.

We'll see how Bills quarterback Josh Allen performs without Stefon Diggs for the first time since the 2020 season. Rookie sensation Marvin Harrison Jr. will touch the field in game action for the first time after sitting out with the Cardinals starters during the preseason.

With so much unknown, specifically on offense, half of our crew went with the Cardinals to cover a touchdown spread. O'Donnell has learned from past mistakes, and he won't let Kyler Murray get one over on him this early in the season.

"It pains me greatly to be making this pick, but it simply boils down to the fact that I'm not ready to be burned," O'Donnell remarked. "I hope the Bills prove me wrong and give me a reason to back them the rest of the season the way I usually do.

"But I've been burned by Kyler Murray too many times, and I don't know what to expect from Josh Allen's offense right out of the gate. So, the Bills should win, but it may not be pretty, and I'll take the points for that exact reason."

Predictions

Davenport: Cardinals

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Michelino: Cardinals

Moton: Cardinals

O'Donnell: Cardinals

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Bills 25, Cardinals 21

If you like to bet over on win totals, this may be your game.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a new defensive coordinator in Ryan Nielsen, and they loaded up on offensive firepower with the addition of wideouts Brian Thomas Jr., a rookie first-rounder, and Gabe Davis.

The Jaguars will face a Miami Dolphins defense without its 2023 sack leader, Bradley Chubb (torn ACL), and fellow edge-rusher Jaelan Phillips is coming off a torn Achilles.

The Dolphins can compensate for defensive issues with a high-powered offense that scored the second-most points last season.

Davenport isn't worried about the Dolphins losing guard Robert Hunt and center Connor Williams. He took them in a scoring shootout.

"Nothing like starting the season off with a battle of two fanbases trying desperately to convince themselves their teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders (they aren't) in a game Vegas has essentially labeled a pick 'em. No way this call will go wrong," Davenport said.

"Jacksonville enters the season as the better team defensively—especially with Miami's pass-rushers banged up after Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb both suffered devastating injuries late last season.

"But Miami's offense is so loaded with speed (and healthy) that it would be a surprise if the Dolphins don't hit 30 points with ease. And with that being the case, lay the points."

Predictions

Davenport: Dolphins

Gagnon: Jaguars

Hanford: Dolphins

Knox: Jaguars

Michelino: Dolphins

Moton: Dolphins

O'Donnell: Jaguars

Sobleski: Dolphins

ATS Consensus: Dolphins -3

Score Prediction: Dolphins 31, Jaguars 27

Will Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud prove he's the real deal and avoid a sophomore slump? Is Anthony Richardson ready for a second-year breakout after he missed 13 games because of injuries last season?

While we won't have answers to those questions in one game, our panel seems to believe that Stroud will do enough to help his team win on the road.

Sobleski expects the Colts to stumble in the season opener as they have done since Andrew Luck's early years.

"To start, the Colts are notoriously slow starters," Sobleski said. "In fact, Indianapolis hasn't won its regular-season debut since 2013.

"Furthermore, some growing pains should be expected from sophomore quarterback Anthony Richardson.

"Conversely, the Texans should hit the ground running with C.J. Stroud fully integrated after a full offseason, plus the addition of Stefon Diggs at wide receiver. Last season, Stroud shredded the Indianapolis secondary to the tune of 648 yards and four touchdowns. The Colts did nothing to improve upon that unit."

Predictions

Davenport: Texans

Gagnon: Texans

Hanford: Texans

Knox: Texans

Michelino: Colts

Moton: Texans

O'Donnell: Texans

Sobleski: Texans

ATS Consensus: Texans -2.5

Score Prediction: Texans 28, Colts 22

In this matchup, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will garner most of the attention, but if you ask him, he doesn't get nervous.

Whether you believe Williams or not, his demeanor is exactly what the Bears need in a highly anticipated matchup in front of their home crowd.

Williams has to operate with ice water flowing through his veins. He must play within himself and maintain his composure.

The Bears will face the Tennessee Titans, a wild-card squad with a new offensive identity under head coach Brian Callahan.

Our panelists are bearish on Titans quarterback Will Levis with Callahan calling plays for the first time in his career.

However, Gagnon can see the Titans doing just enough to cover the spread in a loss.

"I just think the hype could get to the Bears out of the gate against a Tennessee team with plenty of experience and little to lose on the road," Gagnon said. "Chicago probably pulls it out, but I'm expecting Will Levis and Co. to put up a fight."

Predictions

Davenport: Titans

Gagnon: Titans

Hanford: Titans

Knox: Titans

Michelino: Bears

Moton: Bears

O'Donnell: Titans

Sobleski: Titans

ATS Consensus: Titans +4.5

Score Prediction: Bears 24, Titans 21

Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will get an immediate look at the Atlanta Falcons, his former team, eight months after they relieved him of his head coaching duties.

Most of our panel doubts that Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins, who's coming off a torn Achilles, will be able to rebound quickly from the injury.

Conversely, Hanford cautioned everyone about potential issues with the Steelers offense.

"Things should improve in Pittsburgh as the year moves along, but I think the Steelers will be a little slow out of the gate. A young (and banged up) offensive line, a depleted WR room outside of George Pickens and an aging Russell Wilson who may or may not bounce back in Arthur Smith's system is not exactly a recipe that inspires confidence, at least early on.

"I think the Steelers ultimately settle right around where we're used to seeing them by the end of the year, but I'm pumping the brakes on the road against an improved Falcons team."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Gagnon: Steelers

Hanford: Falcons

Knox: Falcons

Michelino: Steelers

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Steelers

Sobleski: Falcons

ATS Consensus: Steelers +3

Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Falcons 20

Far from a matchup between marquee quarterbacks, the Minnesota Vikings will open the season with journeyman Sam Darnold under center while New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is, somehow, still in the prove-it stage, entering the second term of his four-year, $160 million contract.

One of these quarterbacks could make you believe in their future again. They're both top-six draft picks from back-to-back classes with a chance to change the perspective of their career futures.

O'Donnell started with the biggest question facing the Giants this season, and he couldn't answer it definitively, which is why he went with the Vikings.

"How are the New York Giants going to score any gorydamn points?" O'Donnell asked rhetorically.

"Big Blue recorded 29 total TDs a season ago, which was somehow not the worst number in the league (fourth-worst). But 10 of those scores belonged to the former Giants running back now playing in Philly. It's a pretty irreplaceable number for Brian Daboll's team.

"We don't know which Daniel Jones we'll see. We don't know if the new-look Giants offensive line can protect him at all, let alone enough to find rookie wideout Malik Nabers. You regularly find me fighting for the positives with this team. Not right now. Gotta prove something first this year. Getting less than a field goal, even from a Sam Darnold-led Vikings team with question marks just as big as the Giants' own, is not enough."

Predictions

Davenport: Giants

Gagnon: Vikings

Hanford: Vikings

Knox: Vikings

Michelino: Giants

Moton: Vikings

O'Donnell: Vikings

Sobleski: Vikings

ATS Consensus: Vikings -1.5

Score Prediction: Vikings 20, Giants 17

The Carolina Panthers hope that new head coach Dave Canales will revitalize their offense and aid Bryce Young's development.

As a rookie last year, Young struggled behind a subpar offensive line, taking the most sacks (65).

The Panthers signed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. Austin Corbett missed 13 games last year because of injury, but he's back in a transition from guard to center.

Carolina is built to run the ball, which allows Young to progress gradually in his early stages. However, the team won't have rookie running back Jonathon Brooks for at least four weeks because he's on the physically unable to perform list, recovering from a torn ACL.

Young should be able to connect with lead receiver Diontae Johnson through the air, but the New Orleans Saints have ranked within the top 10 in passing yards allowed over the last two seasons.

Most of our panel likes the Saints to cover in a low-scoring matchup, though Gagnon believes the new-look Panthers hang around in a close contest.

"Carolina certainly isn't a good team, but I'm not convinced the Saints will be great this season either. That offensive line might be a complete disaster. At least with one of these teams, there could be an element of surprise as Bryce Young teams up with Dave Canales. Carolina hangs with a familiar foe."

Predictions

Davenport: Saints

Gagnon: Panthers

Hanford: Saints

Knox: Saints

Michelino: Panthers

Moton: Saints

O'Donnell: Saints

Sobleski: Panthers

ATS Consensus: Saints -4

Score Prediction: Saints 21, Panthers 16

After the Seattle Seahawks beat the Denver Broncos in the 2022 season opener, Geno Smith let his haters, who had written him off, know he didn't write back. That year, Smith went on to win Comeback Player of the Year.

Two years later, Smith faces the same team in Seattle with a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb, who can re-energize the offense.

The Broncos underwent major changes in the secondary, and they have some inexperienced defenders in Riley Moss, P.J. Locke and Ja'Quan McMillian playing in key roles.

While our panel believes the Seahawks win this game, half of the crew thinks the Broncos will cover with Bo Nix able to handle a raucous crowd at Lumen Field.

Davenport had a flashback and then explained his lean toward Denver.

"Thanks so much for allowing me to comment on this marquee matchup—from 2013. It means a lot to start the 2014 campaign with this kind of momentum," Davenport joked.

"Oh wait. It's 2024. Nevermind.

"The 12th Man should be off the chain for the opener, and it can be argued the Seahawks are an underrated team. But it can also be argued the perception they are mediocre is valid, and if that's the case, the talent gap between them and the Broncos isn't six points wide. If there's a rookie quarterback who won't be bothered by all the noise, it's Bo Nix, who started 327 games in college and spent eight years in the SEC."

Predictions

Davenport: Broncos

Gagnon: Broncos

Hanford: Seahawks

Knox: Seahawks

Michelino: Broncos

Moton: Seahawks

O'Donnell: Seahawks

Sobleski: Broncos

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Seahawks 23, Broncos 19

For years, the Los Angeles Chargers seemed to underachieve when you compare the offseason hype around them and their end-season results.

However, head coach Jim Harbaugh is why the buzz around this team translates to excitement for a much brighter future.

Even though the Chargers parted ways with wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, they're built to do what offensive coordinator Greg Roman does best with his offenses: run the ball.

With running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins healthy and three recent first-rounders along their offensive line, the Chargers could run over the Las Vegas Raiders, who have ranked 19th and 21st against the rushing attacks under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.

Moton analyzed this matchup from a different perspective, and he expects Davante Adams to tip the balance in the Raiders' favor.

"While Harbaugh will garner headlines, bettors should beware of Davante Adams seething about the Chargers' social media team comparing the Raiders to garbage and using his picture to do it," Moton recalled.

"By the way, Adams has dominated the Chargers in a silver and black uniform, hauling in 34 passes for 494 yards and four touchdowns.

"Yes, Los Angeles has the better quarterback and a more accomplished head coach, but the Chargers' lack of perimeter playmakers could hurt them late in this game. Gardner Minshew II makes Adams a happy camper (for now), feeding him the ball for the go-ahead score in a close battle."

Predictions

Davenport: Raiders

Gagnon: Chargers

Hanford: Chargers

Knox: Raiders

Michelino: Chargers

Moton: Raiders

O'Donnell: Chargers

Sobleski: Raiders

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Chargers 20

The Dallas Cowboys didn't make any offseason splashes with additions (sorry, Ezekiel Elliott). Instead, they're banking on in-house talent to carry their offense.

Dallas signed wideout CeeDee Lamb to a four-year, $136 million extension. Even with Elliott back on the roster, fifth-year running back Rico Dowdle will have a shot to lead the backfield in touches following the departure of Tony Pollard.

The Cowboys face a tough task on the road, going against the Cleveland Browns, who gave up the fewest yards last season.

A few of our analysts picked the Browns to win outright, and Sobleski came up with valid reasons to back Cleveland in this spot.

"Last season, the Cowboys faced a top-10 defense on six different occasions. Dallas finished 3-3 in those games. Upon closer inspection, each of the victories came against the teams with bad quarterback play (Jets, Patriots and Panthers). The Cowboys lost each of those games when the opponent fielded a competent offense.

"Granted, the Browns still have serious questions about whether Deshaun Watson will ever return to form. Plus, four-time Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb won't be in the lineup. Still, there are more than enough weapons in Cleveland's offense to complement the league's best defense. Oh, and good luck throwing a rookie left tackle, who's making a transition from the right side, against Myles Garrett in his first start."

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Gagnon: Browns

Hanford: Cowboys

Knox: Browns

Michelino: Cowboys

Moton: Cowboys

O'Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Browns

ATS Consensus: Cowboys +2.5

Score Prediction: Cowboys 20, Browns 19

Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has a lot on his shoulders. He represents hope for a franchise that made the playoffs in 2020 but hasn't recorded a winning record since 2016.

Daniels' dual-threat playmaking ability will bring much-needed excitement to Washington's offense, though most of our panel doesn't believe that will be enough for the Commanders to win or cover a field-goal spread.

Knox thinks we'll see Daniels flash right away, but he's skeptical of the Commanders' pass defense with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the field.

"To me, this feels like a sleeper candidate for the most entertaining game of Week 1. Jayden Daniels is going to bring a fun factor to Washington that we haven't seen in years, and he'll have a chance to shine immediately against a suspect Buccaneers cornerback group. However, I don't think Washington did enough this offseason to address a pass defense that ranked dead-last in yards allowed last season.

"In what may be an aerial back-and-forth battle, I'll back Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and the Buccaneers in Tampa."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Commanders

Hanford: Buccaneers

Knox: Buccaneers

Michelino: Buccaneers

Moton: Buccaneers

O'Donnell: Buccaneers

Sobleski: Commanders

ATS Consensus: Buccaneers -3

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Commanders 20

The Los Angeles Rams' 2023 season ended with a 24-23 loss to the Detroit Lions in the playoffs. Without a doubt, the Rams are ready to get revenge on a team they may have to face again in the postseason.

As the Lions enter the season with Super Bowl aspirations after losing to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, the Rams will find out how their veteran-led offense and young defensive front measure up to one of the top teams in the conference.

Michelino envisions a high-scoring matchup with the Rams coming out with a victory this time, and most of our panelists agree with him.

"We're treated on SNF to a rematch of the exciting 2023 NFC Wild Card Game, and I expect a ton of offensive fireworks. These teams are forever tethered by their infamous QB swap, and both Goff and Stafford have seamlessly excelled, with each franchise reaching new heights. They also each boast an impressive young core of elite receivers and talented RBs, so it's no wonder that this game features the highest total of Week 1 (set at 51).

"Yes, the Lions have the edge defensively, but I'm a sucker for a narrative and think McVay's adjustments and Stafford's grit back on his old home turf combines to deliver another vintage performance. I'll be riding with the Rams +3.5 in a CLOSE shootout."

Predictions

Davenport: Rams

Gagnon: Rams

Hanford: Lions

Knox: Lions

Michelino: Rams

Moton: Rams

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Rams +3.5

Score Prediction: Rams 33, Lions 30

In the Monday Night Football spotlight, the San Francisco 49ers will host the New York Jets, with storylines surrounding these teams and a history linking the clubs.

Remember, Jets head coach Robert Saleh served as the 49ers defensive coordinator for four years (2017-2020) before he became Gang Green's lead skipper. Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers expressed his disappointment that the 49ers passed on him in the 2005 draft. New York signed defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, whom San Francisco selected in the first round of the 2020 draft.

By the way, both teams dealt with player holdouts, and the Jets still don't know when edge-rusher Haason Reddick will join them. Over the last week, the 49ers signed extensions with wideout Brandon Aiyuk and offensive tackle Trent Williams.

Rodgers tore his Achilles in the Jets' 2023 season opener, so this should be his first full game with Gang Green.

Michelino went against the consensus pick to ride with the Jets because he can see the 49ers coming out with offseason rust.

"Fine, I'll say it. I believe the Jets are legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2024, and I LOVE them getting 4.5 points here. Maybe I'm blinded by the immense talent on this defense (despite the Reddick holdout), or the revamped offensive line or the fact that we're about to witness maybe the single largest leap in skill at the quarterback position from one season to the next in NFL history.

"But even if I wasn't, I have serious concerns about the Niners hitting the ground running after a tumultuous preseason with their stars. In this era of already diminished training camps, I'm wary whenever key players expedite their ramp-up after being limited by injuries or hold-in/holdouts impacting their preparation.

"With Rodgers salivating at the thought of returning to form in prime time and at the helm of the most talented roster he's played on in years, I think we're bound for an extremely close game decided by the margin of a field goal."

Predictions

Davenport: Jets

Gagnon: Jets

Hanford: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

Michelino: Jets

Moton: 49ers

O'Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: 49ers

ATS Consensus: 49ers -4

Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Jets 19

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