NFL Picks 2024: Early Week 1 Odds to Exploit for Opening Schedule (2024)

It can be incredibly difficult to predict what will happen in the opening week of the NFL season, and things will be no different in 2024.

Every year, a few of the league's "bad" teams emerge as postseason contenders, while previous playoff teams hit the slide zone. A long layoff and limited preseason action can also lead to poor early play from even the league's top teams.

Last year, for example, the Philadelphia Eagles only outlasted the lowly New England Patriots by five points in their opener—and the Eagles rested all of their starters this preseason.

All of that unpredictability, however, can lead to some early odds worth exploiting. You'll find a few of our favorite plays for Week 1 here.

Last year, the Houston Texans were one of those teams that massively out-performed low expectations. Thanks to the quick emergence of quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans found their groove a few weeks in and pushed all the way to the divisional round.

The Indianapolis Colts are hoping that a healthy Anthony Richardson can put them on a similar path in 2024. It might happen, but Week 1 is going to be a challenge.

On paper, the Texans are even more talented than they were a year ago. And while Richardson is an intriguing dual-threat quarterback, he still lacks experience. He only appeared in parts of four games last season before being lost to a season-ending shoulder injury.

Richardson only saw limited action during the preseason, and he didn't exactly appear settled. He can pressure the Texans defense with his scrambling ability, but at some point, he'll need to match throws with Stroud.

That will be incredibly difficult against a Houston receiving corps that features Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz.

Divisional games are always tough, and Houston is on the road here. However, this line is too small not to take an early chance on the Texans.

New Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins didn't appear in the preseason, which could lead to some Week 1 growing pains. However, Cousins shouldn't take too long to get rolling. He's an experienced veteran who came in already familiar with the concepts of offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.

Robinson and Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell both learned under Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay and undoubtedly share schematic similarities.

"He's definitely ready to go," Falcons running back Bijan Robinson told The Jim Rome Show (h/t ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio).

The Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, only saw a few glimpses from new quarterback Russell Wilson, who was hampered by a calf injury early in camp. Pittsburgh has a stout defense, but it also has questions along its rebuilt offensive line and among its receiver depth.

The Steelers will need to win with their defense and a strong running game, and that will be a challenge. Atlanta has a solid defensive front that can slow the interior ground game—it ranked ninth in yards per carry allowed last season.

Atlanta should also be well prepared for new Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. If the Falcons can limit George Pickens and avoid big offensive mistakes, they should cover here.

When eyeing over/under lines, the over (-108, bet $108 to win $100) in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Commanders matchup is very enticing.

The game will mark the debut of Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, a thrilling dual-threat signal-caller who will have no shortage of playmakers at his disposal. Daniels will likely make a few big plays with his legs, but he can also lean on pass-catchers like Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler and newcomer Noah Brown.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have a strong cache of pass-catchers of their own. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and rookie Jalen McMillan provide a lot of firepower for quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Tampa's offensive coordinator change is mildly concerning, but Mayfield did previously spend time—albeit briefly—with Liam Coen with the Rams.

The kicker here is that neither team has a truly reliable secondary. The Bucs ranked 29th in pass defense last season and traded standout cornerback Carlton Davis this offseason. The Commanders ranked dead-last in pass defense in 2023 and did little to improve their situation during the spring.

Sloppy Week 1 play is the biggest threat to the over/under here. However, this game has the potential to be an exciting shootout that climbs well into the 50s.

Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.